POLL: Trump holds 14-point lead over Biden among Arab Americans in Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Virginia

06/05/2024 / By Laura Harris

A recent poll by the Arab American Institute reveals that former President Donald Trump has taken a 14-point lead over President Joe Biden among Arab American voters in key swing states.

The poll, conducted from April 9 to May 11 among 900 Arab Americans across Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Virginia, found that 32 percent of the respondents would vote for Trump compared to just 18 percent for Biden. The results, published on May 30, also show state-specific results, with Trump leading Biden 44 percent to 8 percent in Florida, 28 percent to 15 percent in Michigan and 44 percent to 29 percent in Pennsylvania. Both candidates are tied at 22 percent in Virginia, with 23 percent “not sure.” (Related: Poll: Trump LEADS Biden in seven key swing states.)

Trump also has a stronger hold on his party’s Arab American supporters, with 79 percent of registered Republican Arab Americans backing him. In contrast, only 46 percent of registered Democratic Arab Americans support Biden. Among independent Arab Americans, 27 percent favor Trump, 13 percent back Biden and 33 percent remain undecided.

In line with the results, the Arab American Institute stressed several key insights from the poll.

First, Biden’s support is particularly weak among young Arab Americans (ages 18 to 34) and foreign-born Arab Americans, with only eight percent and 10 percent support, respectively. Second, the “crisis in Gaza” emerged as the top issue for Arab Americans, with 60 percent identifying it as their primary concern. Alarmingly for Biden, only five percent of respondents approved of his handling of the ongoing and escalating Gaza conflict.

Meaning to say, the president’s support for Israel in its conflict with Hamas has alienated many in the Democratic Party, leading to protests on college campuses and other public venues. This dissatisfaction appears to be reflected in the declining support from Arab American voters, a demographic that was previously more supportive of Biden.

Arab American support for Biden plummets due to Israel-Hamas war

The latest poll reflects another Arab American Institute poll conducted in October 2023, where Biden only received 35 percent support.

This percentage has dropped dramatically from a solid majority in 2020 when the recent surge in violence in the Middle East had not yet started. That same year, Biden enjoyed 59 percent support from Arab American voters. However, Biden’s steadfast support for Israel amid ongoing conflicts in Gaza dropped to 35 percent in 2023 and now to 18 percent.

For the first time since the poll began in 1997, a majority of Arab Americans did not identify as Democrats.

Instead, 32 percent identified as Republicans and 31 percent as independents. Notably, 40 percent of respondents indicated they would vote for Trump, the likely Republican nominee in 2024, marking a five percent increase from 2020. These voters, who have historically leaned Democratic, are influential in swing states such as Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

Moreover, the overall approval rating of Biden among Arab Americans is notably low, with only 20 percent rating his job performance as “good” and 66 percent holding a negative view of his presidency at that time.

Just like the latest Arab American Institute poll, the 2023 poll revealed that Arab and Muslim Americans view the unwavering financial, political, and military support of Biden for Israel following the Oct. 7 attack by Hamas militant groups as a form of betrayal.

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